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moneymamba home about contact blogging schedule full disclosure comment policy advertising investing writer subscribe risk vs. reward by jt mcgee “no way! i knew i remembered you from somewhere!” a few months ago, somewhere between the fifth or sixth pitcher of beer i was sharing with a friend, we got to talking about the bad jobs we’ve had over our short lives with a friendly stranger. as it turns out, this stranger wasn’t a stranger at all. he and i had worked at the same golf course together in high school. it was closing down, but not because of the reason you might think. attendance had been relatively good – there isn’t much to do in my small hometown – but bad management squandered the place. the golf course was owned by the pro who worked on site. he acquired it on a lengthy mortgage that spanned 25 years. at some point, the new owner saw an opportunity to cut costs. the groundskeeper who had kept the grass vibrant for several years was a significant and unfortunate fixed expense. the owner quickly fired the veteran and made a new, less expensive hire. just weeks later, this new hire started the process of fertilizing the course’s many acres of pristine grass. he’d be back in the morning to start the sprinklers, fulfilling a requirement that the heavily-fertilized grass is watered on a strict schedule. except he didn’t go straight home to get some rest for what would be a very busy day. he went to the local bar, and in midwest fashion, drank more than he could handle. his drive home would end abruptly at the hands of a sheriff, who arrested him on sight, clearly too drunk to drive. the next day, the golf course’s owner and my new bar pal sat in the proshop looking over the course. neither person had seen the groundskeeper that day, but both assumed he was busy at work finishing the job he started the day before. by noon, the grass was slowly changing colors. by the afternoon, it was brown. by night, it would be dead. they called the groundskeeper’s cell phone. no answer. then they started calling anyone they could think of, until one of them had the bright idea to call the local jail. they found him, and the owner quickly rushed to bail him out. unfortunately, it was too late. emergency action to solve a day of inaction yielded nothing. in just one day, the golf course experienced its worst day in history – a $3 million loss due to the death of every square inch of grass. ultimately, in an effort to save an estimated $20,000 in annual operating expenses, the new owner lost the entirety of his investment in the golf course. the previous owner, who had a clause that would allow him to take over the course due to mismanagement, similarly lost a fortune. to the best of my knowledge, the course is slated to be sliced and diced into a number of lots for future home construction. families who paid a premium for a home located on a golf course now own homes that are located in a construction zone for at least a few more years. it’s a really unfortunate thing, but a really good lesson in risk management. some risks just aren’t worth taking. i took a cab home that night. get shareaholic { 0 comments } bad stuff happens from charts that look like this by jt mcgee this is a chart of charge-offs on agricultural production loans, which have exceeded 1% in only two of the last 28 years since the “farm crisis” of the 1980s. (click to see a larger image.) this is a chart of charge-offs on single-family mortgages, which never rose to more than 1% for 17 years from 1991 to 2008. (click to see a larger image.) get shareaholic { 0 comments } uber vs. car ownership by jt mcgee i think uber is the most incredible business ever made: facts about cars: the average car has a utilization rate of 4%, or roughly 1 hour out of a 24 hour day there are 260mm cars registered in the united states. assuming an average value of just $5,000 per car — truly a wag — american cars are collectively worth $1.3 trillion. (~50mm cars were sold in the last 3 years, which make up a substantial portion of total car values.) therefore… increasing car utilization to 20% from 4% could theoretically result in 80% fewer cars in the u.s. this would free up approximately $1 trillion of capital currently tied up in mostly dormant vehicles across the united states. any large improvement in utilization rates will undoubtedly require something like uber (car-as-a-service) plus driverless capabilities. but i really do think this the future. already, uber has had a tremendous impact on at least one industry. guess which one? after growing at a 9.5% cagr from 2007-2014, the outsize economic returns earned by the beneficiaries of a government-sponsored monopoly have declined precipitously to 2016. the world is better for it. crazy predictions: the big three are living on borrowed time. legacy costs (pensions) will be spread over fewer new cars produced. the glory days of car insurance are behind us, as the combination of safer/fewer cars will result in substantially less risk, and substantially lower car insurance premiums/capita. car insurance could theoretically be managed via gas tax, as once argued in the book invisible bankers , reducing sg&a in car insurance and resulting in lower total premiums. get shareaholic { 2 comments } realizing gains and thoughts on the gym industry by jt mcgee not too long ago i told you i invested in a gym run by a friend. as of this week, i’ve effectively sold out. a group of well-financed individuals wanted in, and i couldn’t help but see the opportunity to realize a gain and move on. the terms were frankly too good to pass up. with the deal closed, i have: locked in a gain – i’ll lock in a decent gain on my investment in the gym. created an option – in addition to realizing a cash return, i’ll also retain a 10% stake going forward, which has an unknown value. (my model is extremely sensitive, due to the inherent operating leverage in the business.) my reasons for exiting were as follows: the gym is getting a capital infusion that, in my view, funds increased capex and opex in excess of existing demand, which will result in diminishing returns. i see it as unnecessary. but i am willing to concede that my desire to avoid “cosmetic” investments may have been a big blindspot in my thinking — time will tell. the new biz plan will increase operating leverage, which is — again, completely my opinion — unnecessary given already attractive economics with low operating/financial leverage. (in general, i’m of the view that great returns don’t need to be turned into legendary returns if it induces blow-up risk. too many people are willing to risk turning 25% cagrs into zeros by getting greedy.) the new investors are independently wealthy due to another venture, and seemingly less interested in economic returns on capital than i am. furthermore, i believe they may have a bias toward reinvestment, which, in light of a decision to increase capex/opex ahead of demand, worries me. (fear the landman in every industry.) there will be other opportunities to deploy capital when unemployment is significantly higher than 4.8%, and the cycle is closer to a bottom than a top. this isn’t a macro call, but if you think available investment opportunities are better in 2016 than they were in…say, 2011, please tell me where you’re sourcing ideas! in short, this exit allows me to: realize a cash return. hold an option for potential upside in the event this becomes a home run, with no additional committed capital from my personal balance sheet. be location independent once again — charlotte, nc is calling me. on the industry in all, i tend to think service-oriented group fitness facilities are excellent investments as they: generate more revenue per member. displace capex with opex, which is beneficial in bad economic environments. by my observation and belief, result in lower customer acquisition cost in dollars and cents, and as a percentage of revenue, due to an emphasis on partners/groups

URL analysis for moneymamba.com

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http://moneymamba.com/cate

Whois Information

Whois is a protocol that is access to registering information. You can reach when the website was registered, when it will be expire, what is contact details of the site with the following informations. In a nutshell, it includes these informations;

Domain Name: MONEYMAMBA.COM
Registry Domain ID: 1634261686_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.domainsite.com
Registrar URL: http://domainsite.com
Updated Date: 2018-01-13T17:00:14Z
Creation Date: 2011-01-10T04:38:50Z
Registry Expiry Date: 2019-01-10T04:38:50Z
Registrar: DomainSite, Inc.
Registrar IANA ID: 466
Registrar Abuse Contact Email:
Registrar Abuse Contact Phone:
Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited
Name Server: NS1.WATHENWEBHOLDINGS.COM
Name Server: NS2.WATHENWEBHOLDINGS.COM
DNSSEC: unsigned
URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/
>>> Last update of whois database: 2018-12-08T16:15:30Z <<<

For more information on Whois status codes, please visit https://icann.org/epp

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view the registrar's reported date of expiration for this registration.

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The Registry database contains ONLY .COM, .NET, .EDU domains and
Registrars.

  REGISTRAR DomainSite, Inc.

SERVERS

  SERVER com.whois-servers.net

  ARGS domain =moneymamba.com

  PORT 43

  TYPE domain

DOMAIN

  NAME moneymamba.com

  CHANGED 2018-01-13

  CREATED 2011-01-10

STATUS
clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited

NSERVER

  NS1.WATHENWEBHOLDINGS.COM 129.121.182.102

  NS2.WATHENWEBHOLDINGS.COM 129.121.182.103

  REGISTERED yes

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